The decline of linear television has been a major problem for studios like Disney for a while, but the decline in viewership for children’s channels has become much faster as the next generation of viewers turns to video-on-demand services like Disney+ and YouTube to watch their favourite shows.

Some new data from The Wrap has highlighted how the traditional children’s channels like Nickelodeon, Cartoon Network and the Disney Channel have been losing viewers year on year.   Between 2016 and 2023, the Disney Channel’s audience has dropped by 90%, while Nickelodeon’s has plummeted by 86%.  

With fewer US homes having access to cable television, this number will only increase since what kid is going to wait for a timeslot on a linear channel when they can just watch what they want right now on a streaming service?   

Internationally, over the past couple of years, Disney has closed down the majority of its linear channels, but Disney is still locked into the idea of having a linear channel for kids for its US audience. 

This decline in viewership is also impacting the types of shows we are seeing released by Disney, as the traditional way they create shows and view those shows’ successes is no longer working.

Over the past few months, we’ve seen Disney cancel several shows like “Moon Girl & Devil Dinosaur” and “Hailey’s On It“,  resulting in many fans questioning why Disney is cancelling these shows.  The simple truth is that the shows aren’t pulling in enough viewers or having enough interest in merchandise to make it worthwhile making these shows.  

Cancelling shows is nothing new; it’s been going on ever since TV was created. However, in a world of social media, when a show is cancelled, it sends a ripple across fans, which never happened a decade ago.  A show would just be cancelled, and nobody would really know; there’ll just never be any new episodes released.

Executives do consider the viewership on Disney+ before a cancellation happens since just judging the Disney Channel’s viewership doesn’t reflect what kids are watching, but it seems that Disney executives are still swayed by the linear viewership too much.   An insider explained:

“They’ll say, ‘Let’s see how well it does on Disney+,’ but it better be a f—king slam dunk because the decisions were definitely weighted towards linear, even in the Year of Our Lord 2024.  If there was a Disney Channel animated show that was dying on Disney Channel then doing well on Disney+, that’s not enough.”

It’s hard for a brand-new series to capture younger audiences without a major campaign, since there are thousands of other shows and millions of videos all trying to attract viewers. 

Disney has been trying to adapt its content strategy for a new audience; recently, it announced a brand new series for pre-schoolers featuring the popular Sofia The First character, which will now consist of two short stories rather than a traditional 22-minute story.  This is a direct reaction to the data, showing that younger viewers are more engaged in shorter videos than longer stories.

One of the biggest issues facing Disney is that they are failing to connect with younger audiences with their latest shows and this could cause a major problem in the future for the company, if they don’t fix it.  Since it’s these early connections with brands that last throughout adulthood. 

The growth of YouTube has caused a major disruption to kids’ TV. The on-demand format, mixed with content created by different creators, has created a new generation who don’t turn to linear television for entertainment. There are obviously issues for parents with YouTube since it’s too easy for kids to find inappropriate content.

This is one of the major attractions for parents to Disney+ since it has a huge collection of content for children but is presented in a safer environment.  This is why the introduction of more general entertainment through the Hulu/Star hub has been a balancing act, with an increase in parental controls to make sure children can’t access content that isn’t appropriate while also offering everyone in the household something entertaining to watch.

Disney, along with the other studios, has realised they can’t fight YouTube and how younger audiences watch TV, which is why they are releasing more and more of its Disney Jr shows on YouTube.  Disney can’t afford not to connect with new audiences, and it seems like this strategy is working since it’s preschool shows continue to pull in large audiences, esepcially shows like “Mickey Mouse Clubhouse” or “Bluey”.

However, I do think Disney is struggling to create shows that connect with older children, which is why we are seeing more cancellations in this category compared to the preschool market.  In a world where kids have access to millions of videos at their fingertips, Disney just isn’t making shows that are clicking with audiences in the same way.

Competition for eyeballs is tougher then ever, with social media, YouTube, video games, in addition to other shows and movies.  While its unlikely we are going to see the end of the Disney Channel anytime soon, the changes we’ve seen over the past decade are only going to speed up and Disney needs to change along with it.

There are many reasons why new shows don’t click with audiences, some of this can be down to Disney not promoting new shows or giving them enough time to get an audience before making major decisions.  But it also more importantly comes down to the actual content being good enough to entertain the kids of tomorrow. 

The executives can’t just rely on old ideas to keep making new shows. Focus groups, feedback and testing will no doubt improve things, but making better shows for a new audience isn’t going to be easy.  But without doubt, just throwing a dozen episodes onto Disney+ without much or any publicity, in the hope it just has some natural viral moment to catch kids attention is going to be tricky, as it’s lightening in the bottle and can’t be forced. 

Sadly, I think over the past few years, Disney’s output of content for older children has struggled to connect with audiences and its with the content boom over, Disney needs to go back to the drawing board, do much more research into today’s kids and what they like and don’t like.  What kids their age liked a decade or so ago is almost meaningless now.  Disney Jr seems to be nailing it, because Disney has spent over a century entertaining kids, but that age group also generally has much fewer distractions, compared to older kids.

It’s not going to be easy and with the content boom of the streaming wars now over, each new show is going to have a harder job to keep viewers engaged, but I do think Disney’s history and refocus on quality over quantity will eventually work out.  However, maybe its time the executives stopped worrying about viewership on the Disney Channel as the main metric and focus more on views on Disney+ and YouTube!

What do you think Disney needs to do to capture the attention of younger viewers?  Let me know on social media!

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Roger Palmer

Roger has been a Disney fan since he was a kid and this interest has grown over the years. He has visited Disney Parks around the globe and has a vast collection of Disney movies and collectibles. He is the owner of What's On Disney Plus & DisKingdom. Email: Roger@WhatsOnDisneyPlus.com Twitter: Twitter.com/RogPalmerUK Facebook: Facebook.com/rogpalmeruk

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