The streaming wars have moved into a different era, with a shift to a focus on profitability over subscriber numbers. This has resulted in a reduction in the amount of original programming and the consolidation of different streaming services.

Consumers are pushing back against having too many different subscriptions, so we’ve seen Paramount+ merge with Showtime, HBO Max with Discovery+ and its very likely we are going to see Disney+ and Hulu come together at some point in the future.

Recently, at the TheGrill 2024 event, Media investor Jeff Sagansky, the co-founder of Eagle Equity Partners, revealed how he thinks we are heading into a situtation where the streaming business will be controlled by just four services, Netflix, Disney+/Hulu, Amazon and Max.

“We are in the last stages of the formation of a new oligopoly, which is going to dominate TV and film consumption for at least the next decade.  Together, these four streaming services are on the brink, I believe, of great profitability. Even if this transition has been hard – they all complain – but I think they’re on the verge of great profitability.”

There are plenty of other streaming services available at the moment, but the bigger ones are going to push further and further ahead, which will also result in price rises. Jeff predicts that in the near future, “we’re going to be looking at four services, each charging $25 per month,” and viewers with a four-package bundle will pay as much as they do for cable now.

With some streaming companies expected to pull out of the business, it will leave more subscribers for the four core platforms, but he doesn’t think that will result in more original programming.

“After the latest strike, that’s exactly what the streamers all signal to each other.  We’re cutting back on production, and every trade, every guild, every producer, is feeling the effects of this dramatic cutback.”

It’s one reason why Disney, along with the other streaming platforms, are embracing low-cost ad-supported tiers to get more advertising revenue and more viewership.  

However, Jeff also had another warning for Disney and the other studios, as Gen Z is watching much less traditional television,

“Only 17% of their entertainment time is spent watching TV.  This is a tsunami forming, because when Gen Z stops buying four streaming subscriptions, you’re going to start to see a business stop growing, and it’s going to begin to shrink, and investors will immediately crush the entire stocks of the streaming sector.”

Disney is also struggling to pull in even younger audiences, as there is so much more competition from video games and social media, which are much more focused on younger viewers.

Disney+ is already the third largest streaming platform behind Amazon Prime Video and Netflix. It also has plans to continue to grow the number of subscribers through other bundles, offers and a low cost ad-supported tier. 

Roger’s Take: I do believe the streaming market will only be able to sustain so many different streaming services, and we’re going to see more falling to the side.  I could have easily swapped Max for Peacock/Sky, but I also don’t know if Comcast is really interested in going all-in on streaming.   Paramount will likely end up merging into another service or just licensing out, and I don’t know if Apple TV+ is fulfilling Apple’s needs.   Between the four major players, that does mean there will be lots of competition for creatives, resulting in the best projects being picked up, but the days of almost every project getting the green light are done. 

Do you think Disney+ will be one of the major four streaming services?  Let me know on social media!

Roger Palmer

Roger has been a Disney fan since he was a kid and this interest has grown over the years. He has visited Disney Parks around the globe and has a vast collection of Disney movies and collectibles. He is the owner of What's On Disney Plus & DisKingdom. Email: Roger@WhatsOnDisneyPlus.com Twitter: Twitter.com/RogPalmerUK Facebook: Facebook.com/rogpalmeruk

View all posts